The Australian World Cup preparations are in turmoil. The New Zealand tour has been a disaster. Australia has lost five matches in a row (and won only one in the last seven). In the past three days, Australia has allowed the 2nd and 3rd highest successful run chases ever. The Australians have slid from the top of the one ladder, being replaced South Africa. Yee Gods! And the World Cup may be all the better for it.

Some Australian optimists are saying that it’s all part of the tactics. There is some sound reasoning there: 1. Allowing South Africa to start as favourites is the surest way to see them choke. 2. Four weeks ago the odds for an Australian win were pathetic. The lads have now ensured some return before they duck down to Sportsbet.

Then of course, we have the captain, after the CBA finals loss saying, “This is the kick in the pants we needed.” That’s about as convincing as the national leader saying, “This is the recession that we had to have.”. Booo.

On the other side of the coin, some of the players have dropped their bundles. They are obviously concerned. On Monday, Brett Lee spoke on 2GB radio station and lamented the rotation policy and was quite clear that it had caused a loss of momentum. Gillie, candid as always (and probably about to be in big trouble) said on Inside Cricket (and reported in the Tele) that (paraphrased) the New Zealand tour is a waste of time and the players would have been much better off having a rest. He has a point. The World Cup squad is 15 players. The NZ squad is 13 players and 3 of those selected are not in the World Cup squad. With some simple maths, I can work out that only 10 of this touring party are going to the World Cup. Go figure.

Today, in what was a real slap in the face for Australia, New Zealand rested their star bowlers, Bond and Vettori for this dead rubber. They paid the price as Australia plundered 5/346, with Hayden making 181 not out. But it didn’t matter. The Kiwis still won. In the past twelve months, Australia has conceded the top four highest run chases in one day history. There is something to this. The first is that they are not making enough runs, batting first on perfect pitches. The four scores posted were 7/331 (12 months ago in Christchurch), 4/434 (that match in South Africa), and 4/336 and 5/346 (in the past three days). The theme is not many wickets down. The second is that they are not astute when it comes to defending targets.

Today, at the half way point in the Australia innings, I predicted that Australia would score more than 300 and that NZ would run it down. That was for two reasons:

1. Hayden was scoring too slowly and
2. We don’t have an “at the death” bowler. We don’t have someone like Steve Waugh who had balls of steel and ice in his veins.

You may think it harsh that I have identified Hayden after he scored a colossal 181 not out. He is why: Hayden crawled to his century (100 from 129 balls). Not exactly Geoff Marsh but by today’s standard, and according to the local conditions, it was crawling. At one stage when Watson was scoring at 100 rphb, Hayden took 20 balls of 30 (Cricinfo shows the split for the past five overs). At another point, with Haddin scoring at 122.22 rphb, Hayden took 22 of 31 balls. Provided the team has not lost excessive wickets, if a batsmen isn’t scoring at more than 100 rphb, he’s not in the race. Get out the shepherds crook. You can’t make up for slow scoring by a late burst.

And why could this team not defend these high scores? I remember in AB’s day, if Australia posted 200, that was it. Shut up the shop. I realise that 200 runs is not what it used to be but surely huge totals should be defended. Why on earth did Hogg, who conceded “just” 5.7 runs per over, bowl just seven overs? His other three went to Voges who conceded 33 runs.

Or is this what one day cricket has become? Bob Simpson today was lamenting that we were being bored by batsman dominated games. Perhaps he has a point. Get used to it. The conditions like we had for the last two matches will prevail at the World Cup. Small grounds and perfect pitches. It’s a great leveller as it removes the need for skill from batting. Half decent shots that are caught in the outfield on Australian grounds, go for six. Express pace bowlers like Lee and Tait can be a liability. Top edges fly for six. Edges through the vacant slips arrive at the third man rope in the twinkling of an eye.

On the other hand, in today’s game, two bowlers managed to keep their economy to below five runs per over. Good bowlers can be effective.

No, the optimists are wrong. The wheels have fallen off. The selectors can’t be blamed for everything. There has been a sudden spate of injuries. Symonds is the most serious in terms of injury and impact to the team. Ponting, apparently, is injured. And then Clarke and Lee bit the dust. It is still 3 weeks until the start of the World Cup and 5 weeks until the start of the business end (the Super Eights) but the selectors are taking some big risks sticking to Symonds, Lee and Gillie (who will miss at least the warm ups through injury). I think they need to select 15 fully available and fit players and put everything behind those. It’s a huge risk otherwise.

Me, I’m not panicking. While there is Ponting, there is hope.