With the Test between Bangladesh and Australia perfectly poised after four days, I have had inspiration. Nobody – I truly believe that nobody (even Dav) – thought this match was going to be a contest. Bangladesh has won just one test in 42, scarcely managed the odd draw and has lost 24 matches – over half – by an innings. Having Australia unexpectedly and incredibly facing a large first innings deficit, and even more, batting last, was just the tonic the match needed. However, I can’t see it occurring on a regular basis. Thus, the introduction of the ICC Test handicapping system – I intend to run it past Mal Speed when we catch up in London next month.

Here is how it works. It has the simplicity of all ICC algorithms:

Each team has a number of runs – their handicap – added to their first innings total. It is calculated by taking the highest ranked ICC Test team’s points score, less the team’s own ranking, multiplied by the average age of the players’ mothers, divided by the modal favourite colour of the players on the home team (converted to a decimal value).

Looking ahead to tomorrow. Australia needs 95 runs, with six wickets in hand. Let us remember that Australia went into the match with just five batsmen and Gillie, who is rather an unknown quantity these days. It would seem that Australia’s fate rests with the best batsman in the world (Ponting, 72 not out) and the former best batsman in the world (Gilchrist, 6 not out), who was back to something close to his best in the first innings.

At 1-173, Australia were in firm control. How often a run out can change things. Then again, Bangladesh were 305 in front with a whole four wickets in hand and Australia on their knees. But they added just one more run. Chances must be about even, I think.

A target of 306, “even against Bangladesh” is not easy. But I would like to add that in recent times, Australia has done very well in the fourth innings:

Near miss – 2nd Test, England 2005: dismissed for 279
Honourable draw – 3rd Test, England 2005: 9/371
Win – 3rd Test, West Indies 2005: 3/183
Win – 3rd Test, South Africa (Sydney) 2005: 2/288
Win – 3rd Test, South Africa (Jo’burg) 2005: 8/294